Brexit : The Vote ... Yeah Right

It should have been D-Day for May. I expected a result, press conferences, and resignations (yes more, maybe May herself?). Months and months of build up to the final single most important day in British Politics of the recent three of four decades, the make or break in the UK’s path for Brexit.

None of the above happened. May, and I have to admit quite intelligently to save her face, just postponed and called off the vote. May must have (finally) realised that numbers were not on her side in Westminster, and while on one hand frantically tried to tilt the balance in her favour, on the other hand sought other options.

It is evident that May did not want to risk the deal as it is and then opt after 21 days for a plan B. A crushing defeat on what would have been too much to recover from. Also, May is definitely trying to avoid a vote of confidence moved by the Labour Party. Although such vote is very hard to be won by Labour, nothing can be excluded anymore at this stage. A general election at this point would only mess things even further, especially if it delivers yet another hung parliament. An easy way out for May could be a second referendum and leave the choice to the people. One good news for May is the ruling of the European Court of Justice; revocation of Article 50 by the UK does not need the permission of the other Member States.

While being squeezed with pressure from all parts, even from her own party, May is now meeting other EU leaders in order to get reassurances which MPs demand on the Irish backstop – a temporary customs arrangement designed to prevent the need for checkpoints at the Irish border if a long-term solution cannot be agreed. The issue is that this backstop will impose different regulations in Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK, with the risk of becoming permanent.

And to just make things perfect for May, the Irish Prime Minister already declared that changes to this backstop are not possible.

Good luck with this Ms May!

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